A billion cheap contracts, $2.7 million

Sub-cent contracts accounted for 7.7% of contracts bought on Polymarket in the third quarter, but just 0.041% of the money.

Nov 6 • Matt at Splitrule

October 2026

The markets behind the apps

Kalshi and Polymarket compete for distribution as well as trading volume. The apps and infrastructure around them reveal who reaches customers, who…

Oct 26 • Matt at Splitrule

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When matching market headlines produce different payouts

Microsoft's July 29 earnings call produced two answers to an apparently simple question: was cybersecurity mentioned? Kalshi's final record says No…

Oct 16 • Matt at Splitrule

Missing economic data and prediction-market settlement

How missing economic statistics affect prediction-market settlement, with published contract terms, historical release gaps, and worked examples.

Oct 10 • Matt at Splitrule

The temperature field that misses the daily high

A five-station NOAA study shows how temperature fields and reporting windows differ from the daily high used by weather contracts.

Oct 4 • Matt at Splitrule

September 2026

The rebate cut that could pay makers more on low-priced combos

October 4 extension: new Polymarket US filings specify no combo maker rebate from October 19. The earlier conditional analysis remains in full.

Sep 30 • Matt at Splitrule